After Ajit… What Is the Future of the NCP?

Regardless of which alliance is in power, Ajit Pawar always conducted himself as if the post of Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister was his by right. Now, Ajit Pawar has reportedly died in a plane crash while holding that very position. The moment news of his death surfaced, one word echoed across the internet: conspiracy. Anyone closely observing Maharashtra politics seems to believe that Ajit Pawar’s plane crash may not have been accidental. The reasons for such suspicion hardly need elaboration.

This brings us to the big question: what happens to the NCP after Ajit Pawar?
Especially considering that the party commands the support of 41 MLAs in the Maharashtra Assembly. Ajit Pawar had been leading these MLAs as Deputy CM. With his sudden death, where will this faction of the NCP head? The answer, unsurprisingly, appears to be towards the BJP—that almost goes without saying.

Amid the current political developments, the BJP appears to have no real challenger in Maharashtra. Many believe that even Eknath Shinde may now stop posturing or exerting pressure. In reality, for the BJP to retain power in Maharashtra, the support of Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction and Shinde’s Shiv Sena has been crucial.

The BJP contested the Maharashtra Assembly elections as part of this alliance. Interestingly, in the Lok Sabha elections, voters gave this alliance a major shock. Yet, quite unexpectedly, the same alliance swept the Assembly elections. Two elections held within a gap of just months produced results that had no apparent correlation.

Had Ajit Pawar been alive, he would at least have had the leverage to pressure or negotiate with the BJP when needed. But now, with Ajit gone—after splitting MLAs from Sharad Pawar’s NCP and aligning with the BJP—there is a strong possibility that the BJP will directly dictate terms to the NCP MLAs. Much like how the BJP high command reportedly managed the AIADMK after Jayalalithaa’s death, the NCP could now face a similar fate.

As for the Sharad Pawar–led NCP faction, its situation has deteriorated badly after the Assembly elections. While Sharad Pawar’s group won eight Lok Sabha seats, it was decimated in the Assembly polls. Sharad Pawar’s age is also catching up with him. He is no longer in a position to call back the MLAs who defected with Ajit Pawar—and even if he does, they are unlikely to return.

The party symbol (the clock), party assets, and even the website remain with Ajit Pawar’s faction. One of the MLAs who followed Ajit Pawar could now emerge as the NCP president. The party may effectively function as a pocket party of the BJP. By the time the next elections arrive, the very existence of the NCP could be in question.

If Supriya Sule fights aggressively and manages to retain whatever remains of the party’s traditional vote bank until the next elections, she may be able to keep it alive. But as things stand, the BJP no longer seems to need to appease its allies in the coalition. Even Shinde may find himself increasingly sidelined.